India is gearing up for what experts predict will be an above-average monsoon season, with increased rainfall and heightened flood risks looming on the horizon. The reason behind this forecast? The emergence of La Nina, a weather phenomenon expected to take shape in the Pacific Ocean in the coming months.
La Nina Forecasted by US Climate Prediction Center
The United States-based Climate Prediction Centre of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued a forecast, indicating a 49% likelihood of La Nina formation between June and August. The confidence in this prediction grows stronger in the subsequent months, particularly following strong El Nino events.
Implications of La Nina on Indian Monsoon
Historical data from previous La Nina occurrences highlight a consistent pattern: increased rainfall during India’s monsoon season. However, experts warn that while this uptick in precipitation is beneficial, it also amplifies the risk of flooding in certain regions, as reported by Hindustan Times.
Contrasting Effects of La Nina and El Nino on India
In contrast to El Nino, which typically brings harsher summers and weakened monsoons to India, La Nina presents a different scenario. This weather phenomenon is associated with a robust monsoon, above-average rainfall, and cooler winters across the subcontinent.
IMD’s Monsoon Prediction
In April, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) unveiled its forecast for the 2024 monsoon season, predicting above-normal rainfall. Approximately 80% of the country is expected to receive more than 87 cm of rain from June to September.
Above-Normal Rainfall Predicted After Eight Years
This forecast marks a significant shift, as it’s the first time in eight years that the IMD has projected “above normal” rains for India. The agency anticipates that most parts of the country will experience above-normal seasonal rainfall, except for specific areas in the northwest, east, and northeast regions where below-normal rainfall is expected.
IMD’s Rainfall Estimate
According to the IMD, India is poised to receive 106% of the long-period average rainfall of 87 cm, surpassing the 96% predicted last year.
In conclusion, as La Nina approaches, India braces itself for an above-average monsoon season, with hopes for a bountiful rainfall tempered by the awareness of potential flood risks. With the IMD’s forecast signaling a positive outlook for rainfall distribution across the country, all eyes are on the skies as the monsoon season draws near.
